Learned-scorer CROSS-STATE generalization (#603 Tier 2) — train TX, evaluate CA

Generated by scripts/record-matcher/learned-scorer-crossstate-eval.ts. The GBTGBT (Gradient Boosted Trees). A non-linear machine learning model that combines many weak decision trees into a strong predictor. Mailwoman uses a GBT as an optional learned scorer for single-dataset dedup, improving F1 by 5–7 percentage points over the Fellegi-Sunter baseline. + LR are trained on 2000 TX NPIs (5641 records) and used to cluster 2000 held-out CA NPIs (5574 records) — a stateregionThe first-level administrative subdivision of a country — a US state, a French region, a province. The component between country and locality. the modelneural classifierThe machine learning model at the core of Mailwoman's parser — a transformer encoder (~30M parameters) trained from scratch to do BIO token classification over addresses. It learns the 'grammar' of address formats; the gazetteer supplies the 'atlas.' never saw — through the same resolveEntities pipelinestaged pipelineMailwoman's runtime architecture: a sequence of pure-function stages (normalize → query-shape → locale-gate → kind-classifier → phrase-grouper → classifier → decoder) connected by typed handoffs. Each stage is published as its own npm package. (FS baseline / GBTGBT (Gradient Boosted Trees). A non-linear machine learning model that combines many weak decision trees into a strong predictor. Mailwoman uses a GBT as an optional learned scorer for single-dataset dedup, improving F1 by 5–7 percentage points over the Fellegi-Sunter baseline. scorer / LR scorer), best F1 over a fine per-scorer threshold sweep. This is the generalizationgeneralizationA trained model's performance on data unlike its training set — new regions, new input distributions. The property honest eval is designed to measure. axis the within-stateregionThe first-level administrative subdivision of a country — a US state, a French region, a province. The component between country and locality. held-out-NPI A/B couldn't cover.

Result — CA clustering F1 (GBT/LR trained on TX)

scorer	precisionprecisionOf the spans the model labeled as a given tag, the fraction it got right. High precision means few false positives. Paired with recall to compute F1.	recallrecallOf the spans whose gold label is a given tag, the fraction the model found. High recall means few misses. Paired with precision to compute F1.	F1	ΔF1 vs FS	over-merged
FS baseline (EMexpectation-maximizationAn iterative algorithm that estimates model parameters when some variables are unobserved. In Mailwoman's matcher, EM learns the Fellegi-Sunter m and u parameters from unlabeled data — no training labels needed.-fit)	10.4%	26.4%	15.0%	—	239
logistic regression	7.7%	71.1%	13.9%	-1.0pp	279
gradientgradientThe direction and rate at which the loss would change if each parameter were nudged. Training follows the gradient downhill to reduce error. Huge gradients are tamed by gradient clipping.-boosted trees	58.8%	25.4%	35.5%	+20.5pp	47

The GBTGBT (Gradient Boosted Trees). A non-linear machine learning model that combines many weak decision trees into a strong predictor. Mailwoman uses a GBT as an optional learned scorer for single-dataset dedup, improving F1 by 5–7 percentage points over the Fellegi-Sunter baseline. win GENERALIZES across statesregionThe first-level administrative subdivision of a country — a US state, a French region, a province. The component between country and locality. — trained on TX, it still beats the FS baseline on CA clusteringclusteringThe final stage of entity resolution: resolve non-transitive pairwise match decisions (A↔B, B↔C, but not A↔C) into canonical entities via union-find with path compression. Each cluster of records becomes one resolved entity. F1 (35.5% vs 15.0%, +20.5pp). The learned scorer isn't fitting TX-specific structure; the over-merge signal it learns transfers. This is the strongest evidence yet for the #603 production GBMGBT (Gradient Boosted Trees). A non-linear machine learning model that combines many weak decision trees into a strong predictor. Mailwoman uses a GBT as an optional learned scorer for single-dataset dedup, improving F1 by 5–7 percentage points over the Fellegi-Sunter baseline. — one modelneural classifierThe machine learning model at the core of Mailwoman's parser — a transformer encoder (~30M parameters) trained from scratch to do BIO token classification over addresses. It learns the 'grammar' of address formats; the gazetteer supplies the 'atlas.', trained once, helps a stateregionThe first-level administrative subdivision of a country — a US state, a French region, a province. The component between country and locality. it never saw.

Caveats

A single train/evalevalRunning the model against a held-out golden dataset and computing per-component F1, exact-match, calibration, and resolved-coordinate error. stateregionThe first-level administrative subdivision of a country — a US state, a French region, a province. The component between country and locality. pair (TX→CA), one geocoded sample each, a compact pure-Node GBTGBT (Gradient Boosted Trees). A non-linear machine learning model that combines many weak decision trees into a strong predictor. Mailwoman uses a GBT as an optional learned scorer for single-dataset dedup, improving F1 by 5–7 percentage points over the Fellegi-Sunter baseline. (120 rounds, depth 3). The FS arm is the benchmark baseline (same modelneural classifierThe machine learning model at the core of Mailwoman's parser — a transformer encoder (~30M parameters) trained from scratch to do BIO token classification over addresses. It learns the 'grammar' of address formats; the gazetteer supplies the 'atlas.'), so the comparison is fair. Absolute F1 differs from the within-stateregionThe first-level administrative subdivision of a country — a US state, a French region, a province. The component between country and locality. A/B because the evalevalRunning the model against a held-out golden dataset and computing per-component F1, exact-match, calibration, and resolved-coordinate error. population + over-merge density differ by stateregionThe first-level administrative subdivision of a country — a US state, a French region, a province. The component between country and locality.. NPI-as-truth is conservative. The within-stateregionThe first-level administrative subdivision of a country — a US state, a French region, a province. The component between country and locality. held-out-NPI A/B (learned-scorer-clustering-eval.ts) is the companion; together they bound the generalizationgeneralizationA trained model's performance on data unlike its training set — new regions, new input distributions. The property honest eval is designed to measure. question a production GBMGBT (Gradient Boosted Trees). A non-linear machine learning model that combines many weak decision trees into a strong predictor. Mailwoman uses a GBT as an optional learned scorer for single-dataset dedup, improving F1 by 5–7 percentage points over the Fellegi-Sunter baseline. must answer._